Despite sluggish demand from China and rising global supply, the iron ore market is expected to remain relatively stable over the next 12 to 18 months. According to a forecast by international credit agency Moody’s, iron ore prices will likely range between $80 and $100 per tonne, supported by steady supply and low production costs.
China’s declining steel output and its transition toward greener technologies have reduced the demand for low-grade iron ore. Meanwhile, major mining companies are continuing to expand production, resulting in a supply surplus. However, thanks to their low operating costs, these producers remain profitable even in a soft market.
Analysts at BMI Country Risk and Industry Research share a similar outlook, maintaining their 2025 average price forecast at $100 per tonne, despite ongoing market pressures. Key challenges include production limits in China, persistent weakness in the Chinese construction sector, and broader global economic slowdown.
Nevertheless, signs of renewed monetary stimulus in China and potential progress in U.S.-China trade talks offer some hope, which could partially cushion the impact of weak demand.
Looking further ahead, BMI forecasts a gradual decline in prices to around $78 per tonne by 2034, citing the same core reasons: lower steel production and increasing global supply.
In 2024, global iron ore exports grew by just 2% year-on-year, reaching 1.6 billion tonnes. Australia remained the world’s top exporter with 866 million tonnes (+1.4% y/y), followed by Brazil with 390 million tonnes (+2.6% y/y), and South Africa with 61 million tonnes (+3.4% y/y).
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